Will the challenges to the Big 3 continue in Madrid? An ATP preview

Between them, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal, and Roger Federer have won every major title since 2016. But it’s a slightly different story at the Masters 1000 and 500 levels, where the results have been less certain, and other players have challenged the rule of the Big 3. This year, a couple of them have even begun to challenge Nadal’s rule on clay. The most interesting part of the Madrid draw is finding out where those challengers—Fabio Fognini, Nick Kyrgios, Dominic Thiem—have landed.

Now that we know, here’s a look ahead at how this year’s Madrid Open might play out, and who might challenge the ATP’s ruling class.

It would seem to be an important week for Djokovic. The last time he won the French Open to complete a Djoker Slam, in 2016, he lost early in Monte Carlo, before bouncing back to win the title in Madrid, and going on to do the same in Paris. So far this year, he has lost early in Monte Carlo; now the question is: Can he do the bouncing back part? His draw gives him a chance. He could play Grigor Dimitrov early, then Marco Cecchinato or Diego Schwartzman, then, possibly, a rusty Juan Martin del Potro. Djokovic has been far from his best since winning the Australian Open; before he gets to Paris, he’ll want to show us, and himself, that he can find something approaching that form again.

Also here: Nick Kyrgios, who opens against Jan-Lennard Struff

Semifinalist: Djokovic

While the top quarter is somewhat tepid, this one is filled with bold-faced names and title contenders: Federer, Thiem, Fognini, Gael Monfils, and one who may soon be bold-faced: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, the 19-year-old Spaniard who has had a breakout week in Estoril, and who might face Federer in the second round.

Federer, Thiem, and Fognini have all won Masters 1000 titles this spring, and have all played at a Slam-winning level. Which of them is ready to build on that form: Thiem, who beat Nadal and made the final here last year? Federer, who has won this tournament twice on clay; or Fognini, who dominated Rafa in Monte Carlo?

First-round match to watch: Fognini vs. Kyle Edmund

Wild card to watch: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

Semifinalist: Thiem

The world has been waiting for Alexander Zverev to put his troubles behind him, but his troubles don’t appear to be going anywhere. The latest was a loss this week in Munich, where he was the defending champion, to Cristian Garin. That doesn’t bode well for Zverev’s next title defense, which will take place at the Caja Magica—right now, it’s hard to believe the German won this tournament so commandingly just 12 months ago. It won’t be easy for him to do it again: He’ll start against either Bautista Agut or David Ferrer; and could play Borna Coric or Stefanos Tsitsipas after that. That’s not a cakewalk—both of those guys have beaten Zverev before—but it does hold out an opportunity.

It also holds one out for Tsitsipas, who has beaten back what looked like an early case of burnout to reach the semis in Estoril this week.

First-round match to watch: Bautista Agut vs. Ferrer, who will be saying adios to Spain

Semifinalist: Tsitsipas

And how about Rafa? After losses in Monte Carlo and Barcelona, is his clay empire ready to crumble, or is it just yet another blip on his greatest of all radar screens on this surface? History says the latter, though history doesn’t necessarily say that the home cooking in Madrid will help him find his best form. He has “only” won this tournament four times on clay.

But he’s off to a good start in 2019: None of his current nemeses—Thiem, Fognini, Kyrgios—are in his half of the draw. Instead, he’ll open against either Denis Shapovalov or Felix Auger-Aliassime, and his potential fourth-round and quarterfinal opponents are Nikoloz Basilashvili and Kei Nishikori, respectively. Highly manageable, for Rafa.

Also here: Stan Wawrinka

Semifinalist: Nadal

Semifinals: Theim d. Djokovic; Nadal d. Tsitsipas

Final: Thiem d. Nadal