Amanda Anisimova vs. Aryna Sabalenka: Who will reach their first Wimbledon final?

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova

Sabalenka is ranked No. 1; Anisimova is No. 12.

Anisimova has won five of their previous meetings; Sabalenka has won three.

So, call it even? Almost, I’d say.

From their first encounter, at the Australian Open back in 2019, Anisimova has always liked Sabalenka’s game. She was a 17-year-old rookie and Sabalenka was an established contender, but the American picked her clean, 6-3, 6-2, and left Sabalenka wondering what train had just run her over.

It took her a while to figure it out. Anisimova would win their first four matches, before Sabalenka finally got on the board in 2022. Since then, the WTA’s No. 1 has fought their rivalry to a draw, and won their most recent match, in two pretty close sets, at Roland Garros in June.

Anisimova is one of the few players—maybe the only one—who can take Sabalenka’s hard, heavily spun ground strokes and send them back with interest. All other things being equal, her easy power and flat, penetrating responses give her an edge in their rallies. It’s an edge that may grow on grass.

“I definitely think this surface suits her game really well,” Sabalenka says of Anisimova. “That’s why she’s playing so well so far. She’s serving well. She’s hitting quite clean and heavy shots. We just played recently at the French Open. I had to work really hard to get the win.”

“She’s a challenging player.”

Anisimova, who is into her first Wimbledon semifinal, doesn’t disagree that she has her A-game going.

“I feel like my level right now is very high,” she says. “I’m doing all the right things. So I feel like I’m giving myself the best possible chance I can.”

The Xs and Os of their matchup might slightly favor Anisimova, but this match will be won as much, or more, between the ears as it will with forehands and backhands. Sabalenka and Anisimova are both prone to having strong, and not always ideal, reactions to stressful match situations.

Those reactions were very much on display in their quarterfinals. Sabalenka had to fight hard not to blow up and lose her composure as she was being run ragged by Laura Siegemund’s slices and drops and lob and angles. Anisimova, meanwhile, had to fight hard not to let her nerves, which kicked in as soon as she had a lead in the second set versus Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, bring on the stomach problems that they’ve caused before. Both women were happy with the way they coped.

“I was definitely getting a bit nervous, but trying not to really show any emotion and just to keep fighting and doing the best that I could really,” Anisimova said. “I really reset and told myself to really go for it in the tiebreak…I feel like I did a good job in the end.”

As for Sabalenka, the desire to avoid another meltdown like the one she had at Roland Garros helped her.

“In some moments I was reminding myself, ‘Come on, it’s the quarterfinal of Wimbledon, you cannot give up, you cannot let the emotions just take over you and lose another match.”

Each woman has been tested: Anisimova has won two three-setters, and an 11-9 tiebreaker; Sabalenka has won one three-setter, and three tiebreakers—increasing her tiebreaker win streak to 14 in a row. Experience-wise, Anisimova will be playing her first Slam semifinal in six years. But that doesn’t necessarily give Sabalenka an edge; a lot of her experiences at this stage of the Slams have been painful ones.

I could see Anisimova getting off to a fast start, and the crowd cheering on her explosive winners. If so, Sabalenka won’t like that: She’s not a fan of having opponents take the initiative from her, or of crowds being against her. It will be up to her to keep calm, and it will be up to Anisimova to avoid letting “I’m about to be in the Wimbledon final” nerves get the better of her. Winner: Sabalenka