On Australian Open Day 10, Andrey Rublev vies for a first Grand Slam semifinal in 10 tries

The men’s top half and the women’s lower half are where the stars and Top 10 seeds remain. On Tuesday, five of them—Djokovic, Sinner, Rublev, Gauff and Sabalenka—will try to take their places in the semifinals.

Two former prodigies face off for a second time

Coco Gauff vs. Marta Kostyuk

Before Gauff, there was Kostyuk, a Ukrainian who was touted as the next big thing at 15, two years before Gauff took on that role at the same age. Kostyuk hasn’t seen the same success as the American so far, but she’s still just 21, and she’s into her first Grand Slam quarterfinal.

The two have played once, two years ago on a similar court in Adelaide, and Gauff won in three sets. Coco is the superior athlete, but Kostyuk fights tooth and nail, and will do everything she can to turn this into a scrappy slog. Winner: Gauff

The American tries desperately not to go 0-9 against the Serb

Novak Djokovic vs. Taylor Fritz

“Novak is Novak,” Fritz likes to say. That means, from the American’s point of view, he’s the guy he can’t beat; the Serb is 8-0 against him. This doesn’t make Fritz unique; Gael Monfils has lost all 19 matches he’s played against Djokovic. But it does make Fritz frustrated. When he pushed him to five sets at the Australian Open in 2021, he must have thought he was getting closer. Fritz also must have believed that the passing of time would bring him into his prime, and send Djokovic past his. Yet judging by their two matches in 2023, Fritz is falling farther behind. Djokovic beat him 6-0, 6-4 in Cincinnati, and 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 at the US Open.

Now Fritz will try to climb the highest hill in tennis for a ninth time. He should feel confident in his own abilities after beating Stefanos Tsitsipas in the fourth round—Fritz controlled play for most of four sets against last year’s runner-up. The trouble is, as well as Fritz may belt his serve and hammer his forehand, nothing will change the fact that Djokovic isn’t Tsitsipas—“Novak is Novak,” and nobody else is. I’m going to guess that Fritz will beat him someday, somewhere. But not here, not today. Winner: Djokovic

The defending champ deals with the nerves of being the favorite

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Barbora Krejcikova

Sabalenka came in to this tournament as the defending champion. With the exits of Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina, she’s now the favorite, too. But she was also the favorite to win last year’s US Open after Swiatek was eliminated, and that ended with her shoving her decimated racquet into a trash can.

But there are a few reasons to think she’s safe here. First, she’s dropped just 11 games in four matches. Second, she’s 5-1 against Krejcikova. Third, she usually doesn’t start to get tight until the semis at Slams. Still, Krejcikova is the type of low-margin, hot-and-cold shot-maker who can give anyone fits on the right day. While she has a bad record against Sabalenka, in Dubai last year she came back to beat her after losing the first set 6-0. I doubt Sabalenka has forgotten that. Winner: Sabalenka

The Russian takes his 10th crack at a Slam quarterfinal

Jannik Sinner vs. Andrey Rublev

Tuesday will conclude with a bruiser between two Europeans on the rise. Rublev might want to consider playing four brutal sets, to the point where he starts to cramp, before he walks out on court for this quarterfinal. In his last match, against Alex de Minaur, the Russian didn’t peak until he was in the fifth set and struggling to walk between points. But instead of caving, he started ripping off short-hop forehand winners that de Minaur could only stare at in disbelief. He won the set 6-0.

Rublev will be hard-pressed to put himself back into that kind of mood in the early going against Sinner. But will his confidence carry over? Rublev will need all of it, because he’s back in his least-favorite spot—a quarterfinal at a Grand Slam, where he’s 0-9—and he’s playing a guy on a serious roll. Sinner may have been the best player over the last two months of 2023, and he has picked up where he left off in Melbourne. He has played 12 sets and won them all, and he was in almost-total control against another hard-hitting Russian, Karen Khachanov, in his last match. Just as important, Sinner is 4-2 against Rublev. Winner: Sinner