Aryna Sabalenka or Elena Rybakina? Australian Open women’s final preview

There’s one thing Elena Rybakina shouldn’t hope for in this final: A hindrance call against her opponent.

In her semifinal on Thursday, Aryna Sabalenka was given one after she let out an (especially) extended, two-note grunt. This is how she reacted:

“She really—how do I say in a nice way? She really pissed me off, and it’s actually help me and benefit my game,” Sabalenka said of chair umpire Louise Engzell. “I was more aggressive. I was not happy with the call, and it really helped me to get that game.”

If you’re an opponent of Sabalenka’s, you don’t need anyone giving her more motivation to hit the ball harder or play with more intensity. Sabalenka won that game, and kept rolling to a one-sided 6-2, 6-3 victory over Elina Svitolina. The WTA’s No. 1 player has now played 22 sets this season in Brisbane and Melbourne, and won them all.

“I feel good about my tennis,” Sabalenka says. “I feel like everything that I have been working during the preseason is working. I’m happy with that, and I’m just taking it one day at a time.”

Now she’s back in a familiar place: A Grand Slam final. She has reached five of the last six, and this is her fourth straight at the Australian Open. But this is also a place where she has stumbled: She’s 4-3 in major finals, and she has lost some famous heartbreakers in those matches, including one to Madison Keys, 7-5 in the third set, in Rod Laver Arena last year. She has found it difficult to control her emotions when the lights are brightest, a problem that can extend to non-Slam events as well.

But Sabalenka says she’s confident she has solved those issues for 2026.

I actually know what was wrong in all of those finals that I played and I lost. Aryna Sabalenka

“I feel like those frustration were coming from not agreeing [with] what’s going on in the moment, and right now my mentality is like, I’m ready to do whatever, whatever is going to be in that finals, I’m ready to go out there and fight with what I have and do everything I can. I think when I have this mentality, I play my best tennis.”

That means—I think—she’s going to try not to fight herself, or be surprised and annoyed if she faces adversity. That’s sounds like a plan; the trick, of course, is executing it under the pressure of the moment. She did stay somewhat calmer in her most recent Slam final, at the US Open, and it helped her survive a second-set surge from her opponent, Amanda Anisimova.

No matter how well Sabalenka is playing, she should expect adversity against Rybakina. They’ve faced off 14 times, and Sabalenka leads 8-6; one of her wins came in three sets in the 2023 Australian Open final. Last year their rivalry had a see-saw quality: Sabalenka won in Berlin, Rybakina won in Cincinnati, Sabalenka won in Wuhan, and Rybakina closed out the season with a tight two-set win at the WTA Finals in Riyadh. Again, that was a title match, and again Sabalenka couldn’t come up with her best.

“Her shots are heavy, deep, flat balls,” Sabalenka says of Rybakina. “It’s not easy to work with, but yeah, we have a great history. She’s incredible player. We had a lot of great battles, a lot of finals we played.”

Like Sabalenka, Rybakina hasn’t surrendered a set in her first six matches. That includes a 7-5, 6-1 win over Iga Swiatek in the quarters, and a 6-3, 7-6 (9) win over Jessica Pegula in the semis. The first was impressive for the way she threw down aces when she needed them. The second was impressive for the way she managed her nerves after blowing a pair of second-set leads.

I started this tournament maybe not at my best form, but throughout the tournament it improved, and I played better each match. Elena Rybakina

Looking at their quality as players, their current form, and their ability to handle the moment, this final seems like a toss-up. They’re both 6-feet tall. They both have excellent serves and returns. They’re two of the hardest hitters on tour. And they split their last four matches 2-2. You might want to say that Sabalenka has more experience in these moments, but she also has more negative experience.

The serve will obviously be key, and so will the return. Neither has faced an opponent who can pin her back with one swing the way these two can. Who will defend her second serve better? Who will be more effective with the first forehand she hits in a rally?​

I’ll guess Sabalenka. One difference between them is that she has a heavier and safer forehand. Rybakina’s started to break down late in her semifinal, which gave Pegula a weakness to pick on.

I’ll also take Sabalenka because, before the tournament, I picked these two to make the final, and I picked Sabalenka to win. It’s too late to turn back now.

Winner: Sabalenka