Australian Open Women's SF Preview: Sabalenka vs. Svitolina, Rybakina vs. Pegula

The road to the Australian Open’s final four has brought us here:

• Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina
• Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula

Sabalenka and Rybakina have both won Grand Slam titles, and they faced off in the final of this one in 2023. Svitolina and Pegula, meanwhile, have reached the quarterfinals or better at majors 18 times combined. As of Monday, they’ll all be in the Top 10. Taken together, the four women are a good representation of the current state of the WTA: While one player, Sabalenka, stands above, there’s also a recurring cast of contenders. There’s nothing random about this foursome.

So which two will be left standing on Friday? Here’s a look at how the matches may play out. Both will be played Thursday night in Melbourne, which translates to the unfortunate starting time of 3:30 A.M. ET.

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Elina Svitolina

When I tried to imagine who might come out of the gates blazing in 2026, I have to admit that Svitolina’s name didn’t enter my mind. She’s 31, she’s starting her 18th season, her husband, Gael Monfils, is on the verge of retirement, and the way she ended 2025—by taking a break from the tour after a first-round loss at the US Open—seemed ominous.

But she and her coach, Andrew Bettles, huddled in the off-season and tried to find ways to get back on track and keep improving. After her time off, she found that she was still ready to “dig deep.” The result has likely been better than she could have expected: She’s 10-0 in 2026, with a title in Auckland and now her first Australian Open semi. In her last two rounds, she beat No. 8 seed Mirra Andreeva 6-4, 6-2, and No. 3 seed Coco Gauff 6-1, 6-2.

“It was a good day in the office,” she said after sending Gauff off to smash a racquet in frustration. “Very, very pleased with the way that I’ve been playing, not only this match, but I think the tournament overall.”

Her reward is the top seed.

Sabalenka is also 10-0 this year. More important, her career record against Svitolina is 5-1. Three of those six matches have gone three sets, but there’s no question Sabalenka will present a different and tougher challenge than Svitolina’s last two opponents.

Neither Andreeva nor Gauff hit with Sabalenka’s pace or generate the same type of heavy topspin. Svitolina has always been in the middle of the pack when it comes to power; Andreeva and Gauff gave her a chance to control the rallies in a way that Sabalenka won’t.

Svitolina says she’ll need to pick her spots.

“It’s no secret that she’s a very powerful player,” she says of Sabalenka. “The power on all aspects of her game is her strengths. I’ll have to be ready for that, try to find the ways and the little holes, little opportunities in her game.”

Sabalenka hasn’t dropped a set yet, and she was at her most dominant in her 6-3, 6-0 quarterfinal win over Iva Jovic. She was pushed to two tiebreakers earlier in the tournament by Anastasia Potapova; the Russian was able to hold her own from the baseline and and slug with Sabalenka, which can fluster the WTA’s No. 1.

Unfortunately for Svitolina, she’s not a slugger. She’ll need, as she says, to find creative ways to move Sabalenka, to take the ball out of her strike zone, to sneak forward and grab the initiative, to keep Sabalenka from jumping on her second serve.

All told, it’s a tall order. Sabalenka has been to the last three AO finals; she has to be favored to make it a fourth.

Winner: Sabalenka

Elena Rybakina vs. Jessica Pegula

The dynamic for the second semi is similar to the first: On one side of the court, in Rybakina, you have a long and lean first-strike artist; on the other side, in Pegula, you have a shorter counter-puncher who likes to absorb and redirect power.

In this case, though, the two sides would seem to be more evenly matched. Rybakina and Pegula are 3-3, and while Rybakina won their last two meetings at the end of 2025, their clash at the WTA Finals was a spirited, back-and-forth three-setter. There wasn’t a whole lot that separated them in Riyadh, and they’ve continued at that same high level in Melbourne. Neither has dropped a set, and each has an impressive win or two: Rybakina beat No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek going away, while Pegula had little trouble with either of her bigger-hitting Top 10 countrywomen, Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova.

“I just played her in Riyadh,” Pegula says of Rybakina. “She was playing really good tennis. Obviously won the event. It’s going to be really tough. Anyone that serves like she does, she’s always going to be in the match. Not just serve, but return and from the ground.”

“I’m going to kind of look at some stuff I did in Riyadh and see if I can change some stuff.”

As for Rybakina, there’s one thing in particular about Pegula’s game that she doesn’t like.

“She’s very experienced opponent and she moves well, and also her ball stays quite low,” she says. “So that makes it a bit difficult sometimes to play her, but I will try to adjust.”

Rybakina is 6’0, which makes her strike zone a little higher than most. She’s comfortable taking the ball just below shoulder height and firing it as flat as she can. But Pegula’s low-lining, deceptively penetrating ground strokes don’t make that easy.

This is a tough call. Both women have looked close to their best over the past 10 days, and both have been confident enough to bounce back from whatever brief moments of adversity they’ve faced. After the way she just handled two power-hitters in Keys and Anisimova, I’m tempted to believe that Pegula can handle a third. But at the start of the tournament, I picked Rybakina to play Sabalenka in the final, and it feels a little late to go back on that now.

Winner: Rybakina