Can Ekaterina Alexandrova score Iga Swiatek upset at 2025 US Open?

NEW YORK—When it came to watching Ekaterina Alexandrova play tennis, fans never knew what they were going to get. For a long time, neither did Alexandrova herself.

“I remember just going on the court basically without any plan,” she told me of a particular match last spring. “I was trying to play super aggressively and that night, especially at that tournament, everything was going inside the court. I basically didn’t think too much on the court, I just enjoyed the moment.”

That match was against Iga Swiatek, and Alexandrova struck a whopping 31 winners over two sets to blast the then-world No. 1 off the court and score the biggest win of her career in under 90 minutes at the 2024 Miami Open.

“When you hit like that and everything is going in, everything feels super great. But when it’s not, it’s terrible!” the No. 13 said with a wry laugh after booking another clash with Swiatek.

Alexandrova can still have her ups and downs—the 30-year-old lost from 11 match points up earlier this summer in ‘s-Hertogenbosch—but she has enjoyed a new plateau of consistency at the Grand Slam events, booking a third consecutive trip to the second week after a maddening 1-8 record in her first nine major third-round matches.

“After a couple of these big tournaments, it’s getting easier,” sighed Alexandrova, fresh off a 6-0, 6-1 win over Laura Siegemund. “Before, I could win two matches and in the third, there was this feeling that maybe this would be the time I could finally win that third match in a row, but it wasn’t happening. Then you go to the next tournament, win two matches again and the third round gets stuck in your head because you’re always losing in the third! You don’t want to repeat that and you repeat it anyway.

“But once I won three matches in one tournament, it was like I pushed that barrier and made that step. In my mind, it was like something clicked and it’s not my problem anymore, so I’m able to keep playing.”

That mindset helped her power past an always-dangerous opponent in Siegemund, who pushed Aryna Sabalenka to the brink of defeat last month at Wimbledon.

I’m trying to play more conservatively in some moments so I can better prepare my shots. It’s not like it used to be where, the first opportunity I would have, I’d hit super hard no matter what is going on on the court. Now, I’m trying to make better shot selections, even if it means keeping the rally going long. I’m able to wait for better opportunities to hit the shot. I think it’s working that much better than hitting everything and going for every single one, just hoping for the best! Ekaterina Alexandrova

“I knew it was going to be a difficult match because when we played last time, it was three sets and a third-set super tiebreak,” Alexandrova said of a 2024 Australian Open defeat. “She’s such a difficult opponent to play. So, I was trying not to rush things, play a little bit more conservative than I normally play because with her, she mixes a lot of things together. She’ll hit the backhand slice, forehand slice, she can hit some great shots from the baseline, some volleys. She’s always mixing, and that makes it hard to find the rhythm.

“Today, the score will say that it’s super easy but it wasn’t because with her, you always have to be prepared. Even if there’s a moment that she’s not feeling it, she can start playing good at any time, so you need to be prepared. I think I did pretty good except the one game when I lost my serve!”

Indeed, the German threatened to shift the momentum when she interrupted an eight-game streak against her on Saturday, but the Prague-based Alexandrova regrouped and pressed on to wrap up the win in 60 minutes flat.

“I was trying to tell myself that, even though I lost my serve, it wasn’t that big of a deal because I was a set up and still 2-1,” said Alexandrova. “For sure, it was going to be difficult. You’re never going to have it easy where you go out on the court and win every single game. You need to be prepared for any moment of the match. So, I was trying to calm myself and remind myself that nothing happened, I only just lost a game. Nothing crazy happened! I still needed to play the same way. It worked because as I kept playing I knew I would get more chances, and when I did, I was able to use them. So, I was lucky to use them today.”

It is this more intentional approach from Alexandrova that could pay dividends against Swiatek, who won their most recent meeting on grass in Bad Homburg but has struggled somewhat in New York, rallying from 1-5 down the first set of her third round against Anna Kalinskaya on Saturday.

“I think I’m trying to play more conservatively in some moments so I can better prepare my shots,” Alexandrova explained. “It’s not like it used to be where, the first opportunity I would have, I’d hit super hard no matter what is going on on the court. Now, I’m trying to make better shot selections, even if it means keeping the rally going long. I’m able to wait for better opportunities to hit the shot. I think it’s working that much better than hitting everything and going for every single one, just hoping for the best!”

In the midst of a whirlwind stretch, Alexandrova flew to Flushing Meadows following a runner-up finish at the Abierto GNP Seguros and is eager to make the most of what time she has left in the Big Apple.

“We spend almost all day on site because the traffic from Manhattan to here can be a lot, and then from here to Manhattan can also be long!” said Alexandrova, who took the court for her first round 72 hours after a three-set defeat to Diana Shnaider in Monterrey. “Everything takes so much time here, so when you’re finally back at the hotel, it’s just dinner and sleep. Nothing else. But maybe tomorrow or after the tournament, I’ll have more time than now. For sure, I’ll go for a walk, like a tourist thing!”

Alexandrova generally prefers a smaller city, but she’ll be on a very big stage for her match against Swiatek. With a game plan in mind and growing confidence, fans arriving to Louis Armstrong Stadium on Monday fairly certain she won’t hit herself off the court. Can she hit through Swiatek and reach her first Grand Slam quarterfinal?