Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner rivalry renewed: 3 takeaways from the 2025 Wimbledon men's draw

There are 128 players in the men’s field at Wimbledon, but the focus is on just two of them as the tournament begins: No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz. The hope for an epic final-round showdown haven’t been this high, this early, since the days when Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal chased each other from Paris to London each summer.

DRAW: Alcaraz to open against Fabio Fognini, Sinner to play Luca Nardi

Alcaraz and Sinner just did Paris. Can they give us a sequel in London? Here’s a look ahead at their draws, the players who could spoil their party, and the matchups to watch for.

Who has the harder road: Sinner or Alcaraz?

This is a tough question to answer right now, because after Roland Garros, no one, possibly outside of Novak Djokovic, seems like a dire threat to either the Italian or the Spaniard. They passed all the relevant tests in Paris, so why wouldn’t they do the same here?

For Sinner, those tests begin with a first-round match vs. his talented, 94th-ranked, 21-year-old countryman Luca Nardi; it will be their first meeting. If the seeds hold, Sinner would have Denis Shapovalov in the third round, Tommy Paul in the fourth, another Italian—and 2024 Wimbledon semifinalist—Lorenzo Musetti in the quarters, and either Novak Djokovic or Jack Draper in the semis.

Alcaraz will kick his campaign off against the elder statesman of Italian tennis, Fabio Fognini. If he wins there, his path may look like this: Felix Auger Aliassime in the the third, Andrey Rublev in the fourth, Holger Rune in the quarters, and either Taylor Fritz or Alexander Zverev in the semis.

The difficulty levels are similar through the quarters, but Sinner’s potential semifinal opponents (Djokovic and Draper) look significantly tougher than Alcaraz’s (Fritz and Zverev). For his part, Alcaraz could get a quarterfinal challenge from Rune, who beat him in the Barcelona final this spring.

Opponents aside, Alcaraz is coming in with a much fuller head of steam. He’s won 18 straight matches, and 27 of his last 28 dating back to Miami in March. He’s also the two-time defending Wimbledon champion, while Sinner has yet to make the final.

Maybe most important, Sinner, who lost early in Halle last week, may still be working through his Roland Garros defeat. Even for someone as level-headed and positive as he seems to be, having three match points for a Grand Slam title, and not cashing in on them, is something that will stay with you.

Who has the best chance of derailing a Sincaraz sequel?

You have to start with the top two seeds in the second quarter, Djokovic and Draper.

The former is a seven-time Wimbledon champion, who just made the Roland Garros semifinals and pushed Sinner through three tense sets. Djokovic’s draw also looks manageable: Alexandre Muller to start; 30th-seeded Alex Michelsen in the 3rd round; and Alex De Minaur in the fourth. Djokovic hasn’t had a great season, and has been hinting at retirement of late, but he hasn’t lost before the final at Wimbledon since 2017.

Where Djokovic may be hoping for a last dance, Draper will come in as as a home-Slam contender for the first time. He’s had a breakthrough year, has improved by the month, his game should work on grass, and he’ll have the Center Court fans the whole way. One problem: His draw. Just to get to Djokovic, he may have to beat grass-lover Alexander Bublik, and another 2025 breakout performer, Jakub Mensik.

Other dark horses:

Bublik and Mensik: Massive serves, thorny draws. As mentioned above, they may have to go through Draper and Djokovic just to get to Sinner

Musetti: He made the semis here last year, he’s had a consistent spring, and he has a good draw. But he’s 0-2 against Sinner, his potential quarterfinal opponent

Daniil Medvedev: At 29, he’s had a bad year; his No. 9 seeding actually seems high. But he made the Halle final last week, and we know he can go deep at all the majors. Best of all for him, he’s in a quarter without Sinner, Alcaraz, Djokovic, or Draper. Is it too late for a Meddy revival?

What are the early-round matches to watch?

Sinner vs. Nardi: Playing a countrymen, and someone you’ve never faced before, can be unsettling, even if he’s ranked 93 spots behind you.

Alcaraz v. Fognini: Can the middle-aged bad-boy—now a father of three—rattle the favorite, even for a minute? I have my doubts.

Bublik vs. Jaume Munar: The 54th-ranked Spaniard is hardly a grass-court specialist, but he gave Alcaraz a run at Queen’s last week. After making the quarters at RG and winning in Halle, Bublik will be dealing higher expectations than usual. How will he handle them?

Fritz vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard: The young Frenchman hasn’t progressed as much as expected in 2025, but he’s still 6-foot-8, and can still ace his way to a win on grass.

Joao Fonseca vs. Jacob Fearnley: The England native is ranked 51st, the Brazilian 57th. Let’s see if the Brazilian crowd can match the Brits.