In my preview of the Madrid men’s final between Casper Ruud and Jack Draper this weekend, I wondered whether the conditions at the Caja Magica might make the difference in the outcome. Ruud was clearly the more accomplished clay-courter; he had 11 titles on the surface, to none for Draper. But Draper had a game that appeared better-suited to the fast dirt and thin air of the Spanish capital. The two had never played before, so there wasn’t much else to go on.
By the end of their first meeting, though, another factor—unforeseen by me—had proven to be more important than the surface or the altitude: Final-round, big-stage experience. Ruud, three years older, had a distinct edge in both. He had played 24 finals—three at the majors—while Draper had played just six. Ruud had never won a Masters 1000, and Draper had, but Ruud had put himself in positions like this far more often. In his three Slam finals, he had lost to three of the best, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, and Carlos Alcaraz. Something was bound to rub off on him in those defeats, and it showed at a couple of crucial junctures on Sunday.
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Looking at most of the statistics, Draper played the better match. He hit more winners (43 to 40), committed fewer errors (30 to 33), won more points at net (14 to eight), and had a higher first-serve percentage (64 to 59). He got out to a much faster start, and his favorite shot, the down-the-line forehand, looked like it was going to be an unstoppable, difference-making weapon. Draper served for the first set, and twice was two points from winning it. In the third, he had two break chances to take a 3-1 lead. Yet he lost both of those sets, and in the end it was Ruud’s down-the-line forehand that made the difference.