Can Coco Gauff stop Aryna Sabalenka? Miami Open final preview and pick

Sabalenka and Gauff agree on one thing: Their rivalry is a grind.

“We’ve played so many matches, and it’s physical when I play her every time,” Gauff says. “It’s going to be tough.”

“With Coco, you know that you have to play an extra ball, and the ball always comes back,” Sabalenka says. “Sometimes not perfect, but it’s always back on your side, and you have to be aggressive, you have to go for shots.”

“She pushes you into the long rallies, and I think that’s what makes her difficult.”

Gauff also has a history of pushing Sabalenka around the bend mentally. Twice in Grand Slam finals—at the US Open in 2023 and Roland Garros in 2025—Sabalenka has lost control of her emotions, and her shots, against the American, and lost what looked to be a sure victory in three sets.

That said, it hasn’t all been disastrous for Sabalenka in this matchup. The head-to-head between them is 6-6, and the WTA’s No. 1 player won their most recent meeting, on an indoor hard court in Riyadh, last November. This will be their first encounter in Miami, and Gauff’s first trip to the final in what is essentially her hometown tournament.

In fact, she had never made the semis or even the quarters here before, and there were some moments over the past 10 days when she looked destined to make another early exit. Her first four matches all went three sets, as she continued to do battle against her wayward serve and erratic forehand. But finding a way to beat Belinda Bencic in the quarters, when it looked like she was out of it, felt like a breakthrough. After that, Gauff was an altogether different and better player in her 6-1, 6-1 semifinal demolition of Karolina Muchova.

“Today I didn’t feel like an imposter,” Gauff said, in what qualifies as high self-praise coming from her. “I feel like I played some good tennis today.”

But Sabalenka can say the same. She’s now 22-1 on the year. She has won 22 of the 23 sets she’s played in Indian Wells and Miami. She’ll be going for her first Sunshine Double on Saturday, and she just beat the No. 2-ranked player, Elena Rybakina, in pretty routine fashion, 6-4, 6-3.

“I think I played really incredible tennis,” Sabalenka said after that match. “Nothing I could do better today.”

In the past, though, this can be a moment where Sabalenka gets herself in trouble against Gauff. She comes into their match playing well. She controls the early rallies. She wins the first set. She thinks she’s going to cruise to victory. And then Coco goes to work on her, makes her play those extra balls, tests her patience, makes her hit through her nerves longer than she wants, and creates some doubt in her mind. When Gauff mounts a comeback, Sabalenka can’t believe it, and she doesn’t react well.

If that scenario plays out again on Saturday, Sabalenka might reach a moment of truth: Will she stay calm as Gauff gets back into the match, or will she lose her cool? The answer will likely determine who walks away with the trophy. Winner: Sabalenka