Danielle Collins' history with Iga Swiatek is feast-or-famine fascinating

Iga Swiatek vs. Danielle Collins

The day session in Rod Laver Arena will get off to hard-hitting start; whether it’s a competitive one, we’ll have to wait and see. It has been famine or (relative) feast for Collins when she faces Swiatek. In two of their five matches, the American has managed to win just a single game. In another, she retired after winning two games. But in the other two, she has beaten Swiatek in straight sets, and lost to her in three sets. Maybe the best thing Collins has going for her is that her one win over the Pole came in the 2022 Australian Open semifinals.

But much has changed since then. After that defeat, Swiatek suddenly became unbeatable and shot up to No. 1. Collins, meanwhile, has sunk to No. 62. Swiatek did have a shaky moment or two in her opener against another American, Sofia Kenin. And Collins can catch fire in Australia like nowhere else. Which means she should get more than one game. Winner: Swiatek

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Lorenzo Sonego

The Spaniard and the Italian follow Swiatek and Collins in the day session. They’ve played once, and—surprise, surprise—the Italian won. Granted, the match happened three years ago in Cincinnati, when Carlitos had recently turned 18, and before he became the future Hall of Famer we know today.

Still, Sonego’s win shows that, on the right day, he can trade missiles with anyone. He’s ranked 44 spots behind the second-seeded Alcaraz, but he’s coming off a decent win over Dan Evans, and he has the pace—again, on the right day—to take the initiative away from Alcaraz. The Spaniard doesn’t like that. Winner: Alcaraz

Grigor Dimitrov vs. Thanasi Kokkinakis

John Cain Arena should be jumping in the late afternoon. The 32-year-old Bulgarian and the 27-year-old Australian have been on tour together for nearly a decade, but have never played each other. So we don’t know how well Dimitrov can return Kokkinakis’ strong serve, or whether the tall Aussie can get down to dig out Dimitrov’s skidding slices.

What we do know is that Dimitrov is ranked 13th, and Kokkinaki is 80th, and has never been higher than No. 65. We know that each man is coming off a physical first-rounder; Kokkinakis won his 10-8 in a fifth-set tiebreaker, and Dimitrov took three-and-a-half hours in his. We know the fans will be behind Kokkinakis. But we also know they’ve never helped him past the second round at his home Slam before. Winner: Dimitrov

Jelena Ostapenko vs. Ajla Tomljanovic

These two had a mini-dustup after Tomljanovic won their third-round match at Wimbledon in 2021—not uncommon for Ostapenko, very uncommon for Tomljanovic.

Since then, each woman has had her rises and falls. Currently, it’s the Latvian who has found her groove again and re-entered the Top 10. The Australian, meanwhile, is coming back from a year on the sidelines with injury. That would seem to favor the more in-form and match-tested Ostapenko, but Tomljanovic did ride the home-crowd support to a surprise comeback win over Petra Martic in her last round. The fans will try their best to help her do it again. Winner: Ostapenko