De Minaur, Musetti or Shelton: Which underdog stands the best chance of shocking the world in the AO quarterfinals?

Some call it the pointy end of the tournament. Some call it the business end. Some say we’re into the second week. However you want to put it, the message is the same: We’ve reached the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam; it’s time for the stars to shine, and collide.

There are a lot of those stars still around. This Australian Open has given us remarkably little carnage, as 13 of the Top 16 seeds in the men’s and women’s draws have reached the quarters. That includes seven of eight on the ATP side.

👉 Where to watch the 2026 AO on Tennis Channel

For the past two seasons, this is when we’ve seen the top two men elevate over everyone else. Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have split the last eight majors, and they’ve put more distance between themselves and the rest of the pack with every passing month. In the last three Slams, neither dropped more than a set, total, in their six quarterfinal and semifinal victories.

Can anyone change that in Rod Laver Arena this week? Is there a chance we might finally see an upset at this event? In three of the men’s quarters, one player will be trying to defy a very lopsided head-to-head record. (Alexander Zverev meets Learner Tien in the fourth one, having split their first pair of encounters)

Here’s a look at who—if any of them—might have a chance to shock the world.

Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alex de Minaur (Alcaraz leads 5-0)

“I got tired of the narrative that these big hitters can take the racquet out of my hands,” De Minaur says.

So far the sixth seed has done his best to turn that storyline on its head in Melbourne. In his last two rounds, the relatively undersized Aussie—he’s a lean 6’0—has beaten two attack-oriented opponents, Frances Tiafoe and Alexander Bublik, in straight sets. His mid-match dismantling of Bublik, who was undefeated in 2026 and had won their previous two encounters, was especially impressive. De Minaur is playing close to the baseline, finding the corners, and doing whatever he can to not to cede the initiative in rallies.

Beating Tiafoe and Bublik is one thing. Beating Alcaraz, and making a semifinal at a major, is another. Especially since De Minaur has never done either of those things before. He’s 0-5 against the Spaniard, and 0-6 in Grand Slam quarterfinals. The (somewhat) good news is that his matches with Carlos have been competitive. He has taken two sets, and pushed another to a tiebreaker last fall in Turin.

“This is going to be the first time playing at a Grand Slam,” De Minaur says. “So I’m very keen to see how it goes.”

If De Minaur is going to get on the board against Alcaraz, a night match in front of the home folks in Laver is probably the place. But is this the time? Alcaraz hasn’t dropped a set in four matches. That consistency hasn’t gone unnoticed.

“In the past, he’s maybe had times where he’s been able to give you a couple of cheap points here and there and kind of let opponents get into the match, and he’s been working on that,” De Minaur says of Alcaraz. “So he’s only going to make it harder.”

Read More: De Minaur accepts that he’ll be a "49% shareholder" in marriage to Boulter

These are two of the quickest players on tour, but it will be the man who runs less who will likely end up the winner. Alcaraz has improved his serve, he has more God-given pace on his shots, and he can kick his game into a higher gear than De Minaur. Which means the Aussie will need to go farther out of his comfort zone to win.

“It just comes down to I’m going to have to bring some of my best tennis, right?” De Minaur says.

I can see it working for a set. Maybe for two sets. But three? I’ll say that by the end, Alcaraz will have seen and raised whatever De Minaur puts on the table.

Winner: Alcaraz

Novak Djokovic vs. Lorenzo Musetti (Djokovic leads 9-1)

“Age-wise, look, I think that on a given day when I’m feeling good physically and mentally, when I’m playing well, I can challenge anybody, and I still believe I can beat all of them,” Novak Djokovic said last week.

That’s about as self-assured as Djokovic has sounded in a while, at least to my ears. But it makes sense that the Australian Open, a tournament he has won 10 times, would bring out that confidence. Djokovic says he “probably” has the best chance of winning Slam No. 25 in Melbourne, “because it’s the beginning of the season, and my body is still fresher than what it would be maybe other parts of the season.”

Read More: Djokovic records 400th career win at a Grand Slam event

Will it also help the 38-year-old that he got a walkover from an injured Jakub Mensik in the fourth round, and hasn’t had to play in four days? His opponent, Musetti, thinks so.

“I think at this age, I think he was happy about it, of course, to try to be well-prepared and well-relaxed for this match,” the Italian says.

We’ll see. At some point, if he makes the semis or the final, Djokovic may be grateful for that free pass. But will it help him now, in the quarters? Like most tennis players, he’s a creature of habit and rhythm, and he’s had both of those things disrupted.

Judging by their head-to-head, it will take a serious disturbance to Djokovic’s mind or body for him to lose to Musetti. He leads 9-1, and has won their last six meetings. Twice at Roland Garros, Musetti has built an early lead, only to see Djokovic storm past him and run away with the fifth set.

Musetti says there are two specific things that make Djokovic tough to beat.

“One for sure, you know, facing his character, his status as a player and as a champion,” Musetti says. “The second one of course the way he turn around sometimes from difficult situation, raising his level, never escaping from a match.”

Musetti’s most recent reminder of Djokovic’s escapability came a little more than two months ago, in the Athens final. The Italian won the first 6-4, before losing 7-5 in the third. Still, to get that close on a hard court, which is not Musetti’s favorite surface, should be encouraging.

“I think I had my chances there, but I…was not cold enough to beat him,” Musetti says.

Musetti, like De Minaur, will need to take risks. He’ll need to hit his one-handed backhand early and on the rise. He’ll need to serve and return exceptionally well. He did all of those things in his last match, when he beat Taylor Fritz in straight sets behind 13 aces.

It’s possible that he’ll finally be ready to do it against Djokovic, too. But I’m not going to bet on it in best-of-five, in Laver. Way too much history says that the Serb will find a way.

Winner: Djokovic

Jannik Sinner vs. Ben Shelton (Sinner leads 8-1)

Sinner must not have enjoyed losing to Shelton in their first meeting, in Shanghai in 2023. Since then, he’s 8-0 against the American in matches, and 19-0 in sets. That includes all nine of the sets they’ve played at the majors, and the three they played in the Australian Open semifinals 12 months ago.

What explains that domination? Shelton is normally a guy who is tough to break, and he has been good enough to push Sinner to a tiebreaker seven times in those eight defeats. He also had set points in their matches at Wimbledon in 2024 and in Melbourne last year, but couldn’t convert.

According to Shelton, it’s Sinner’s pace that makes him so hard to handle, especially when compared to other opponents.

“His ball speed is really high; never seen anything like it,” Shelton said at Wimbledon last summer. “You don’t see anything like it when you’re going through the draw. When you play him, it's almost like things are in double speed.”

“It’s difficult when a guy’s hitting the ball that big, that consistently off both wings, and serving the way he is.”

Still, Shelton hasn’t sounded overly discouraged by his defeats, and he feels like he has improved already this season, in particular with his volley and forehand return. He was an all-world 29 of 30 at net in his last match, against Casper Ruud.

“I think my game is a lot different,” Shelton says. “I think the way that I’m executing, one, at the net is going to be a huge advantage to me.”

“I think that’s a piece that really helps me, because you got to play offensive tennis to beat the best guys.”

Read More: Sinner rebounds in style to make AO quarterfinal return

Shelton, who hit 14 aces against Ruud, certainly has the weapons to win a set against Sinner. But Sinner’s excellent backhand negates some of his lefty edge, and his pace can end up feeding into the Italian’s cleaner strokes.

Even when their scores look lopsided, the matches between these two can be decided by just a few clutch pressure points. That’s doesn’t sound like much, but it’s a tougher aspect of the game to turn around than it may appear.

Winner: Sinner