Five things to watch for on AO Day 4: A well-behaved Alcaraz, Sabalenka's net rushes

The first round at the Australian Open is over, which means the top players can breath a sigh of relief, right? Opening matches are always edgy affairs, especially at the year’s first major. So far, the seeds have held their nerves well: 52 of 64 advanced to round two; 27 of 32 on the women’s side, 25 of 32 on the men’s.

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Their reward is a second-round match. These aren’t as famously treacherous, but there’s an underrated danger to them, too, because you may be tempted to relax now that you have a win under your belt. The last time Carlos Alcaraz lost in the first week at a Slam, it was in the second round at the 2024 US Open. The last time Novak Djokovic lost in the first week at the Australian Open, it was the second round in 2017.

The round of 64 starts on Wednesday in Melbourne (Tuesday night in the States), and features a mix of stars, dark horses, and surprises. Here are five to watch.

Meet the New Carlitos, Same as the Old Carlitos

Alcaraz’s first match without Juan Carlos Ferrer as his coach looked…a lot like the hundreds of matches he played with him. There was the strong start, the second-set dip, and the strong close that we’ve come to expect.

“Just lost the focus a little bit in that game with my serve,” Alcaraz said. “It was then more complicated for me.”

We know that story well.

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Alcaraz sounds as if he’s making a point of being self-reliant without his mentor.

“I’m just happy because I think the things that I had to do, I did it pretty well in terms of myself, behave well, just good mindset all the time,” he said.

Next up is Yannick Hanfmann, a 34-year-old German currently ranked 103, but who has been as high as 45. Alcaraz won their only meeting, on clay, in two tiebreakers, back in 2019. At 6’4, Hanfmann has a good serve and a clean two-handed backhand. He may not do anything unusual with the ball, but he will hit it hard.

Winner: Alcaraz

Coco Tries to Step on the Gas

“Accelerate” was Gauff’s self-command du jour in her first-round win.

“I don’t think I was accelerating enough, which is why a lot

of the [double faults] went in the net,” she said. “As the match went on, I just told myself to accelerate on my serve more. Obviously when that happens, I get more speed and velocity.”

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In her own retelling, Gauff started too slowly on her serve; six of her seven doubles came in the first set, and three in the first game. The good news is that she was able to “erase” that game from her mind, and fix the flaw in her motion on the fly.

“I think the next match I’ll try and start quicker than I did today.”

That next match will be her first against Olga Danilovic, a 6’0 lefty from Serbia, who escaped an 0-4 third-set deficit versus Venus Williams in the first round. Danilovic is only ranked in the 60s, but her height and range may gave her a fighting chance to making this competitive.

Winner: Gauff

Mirra Stops Fighting (Her Coaches) and Starts Winning Again

“I’m finally getting smarter,” Mirra Andreeva said with a smile after her three-set first-round victory over Donna Vekic.

I’m not sure the “finally” in that sentence is merited; Andreeva is still just 18. But after two full years on tour, it’s probably time for her to evolve.

Emotionally, she says she’s improving. She knows that her past panicky meltdowns, of which there have been many, weren’t productive.

“It’s just easier for me to realize that panic won’t help,” she says. “The only thing that’s going to help is if I stay calm, I listen to what my team says.”

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Even a teenager, it seems, can only fight her coaches for so long.

“I’m getting smarter also because I just do what my team says now,” Andreeva continued. “I’m also a little bit lazy to fight against them. They told me to go, I go. They told me to stay, I stay.”

That goes for the tactics in her next match, which will be her first against Sakkari.

“I do have an idea of how she plays, but I wouldn't say that I know her pretty well,” Andreeva says. “From now on it’s Conchita’s job to tell me whatever I have to do.”

Whatever Andreeva is doing, it’s working so far in 2026. She’s 7-1, with a title in Adelaide. But she should still listen well to Conchita before this one. Sakkari is a former Top 5 player who has wins over Naomi Osaka and Emma Raducanu in 2026.

Winner: Andreeva

Aryna Sabalenka, Net Rusher?

One thing we can say about Sabalenka’s first two matches: They’ve had a lot of vowels in them. In the first round, she beat Tiantsoa Sarah Rakotomanga Rajaonah; in the second, she’ll go up against Bai Zhuoxuan of China.

Bai is 23 and ranked 702nd. That doesn’t sound ominous, but she has been as high as 83, and she’s 4-0 so far at the AO, having won three qualifying matches and an opener over Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, 12-10 in a deciding tiebreaker.

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Bai is listed at 5’9 but doesn’t look or play that tall. Her strength is her ball-striking, in particular her forehand, which she can crack inside-out and inside-in with surprising pace. Her middle-of-the-box serve, though, will give Sabalenka plenty of looks on her return.

Will Sabalenka follow those returns, and her serves, to net? She came in 22 times in her first-round win, a high number for her in a short match.

“I prefer to be unpredictable,” a smiling Sabalenka said. “I think it’s very important to always working on your game, always developing as a player, always searching for something that’s new, that is going to help your game.”

“I think that’s the key to be consistent, always bring something new on the table.”

Winner: Sabalenka

Zheng Goes For Stunner No. 2

What’s the difference between a pro and an amateur these days? Even Michael Zheng isn’t sure. The Columbia University senior says there are “rumors” he can keep his AO prize money and still be eligible to compete for his team this spring, “but I want to make sure to double-check.”

“I don’t want to get into trouble or anything.”

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Zheng is going to miss the first day of classes, which start on the 20th. He says he’ll definitely finish his final semester—though he admits that a win over Alcaraz in the third round might make the decision a little more difficult. First, though, he has to get past the 37th-ranked Moutet.

The Frenchman is under-sized and under-powered, but he’s a volatile competitor with variety of spins and angles. On the one hand, his guile will pose a challenge to Zheng, who had never played a full five sets before his first-round win over Seb Korda. On the other hand, Moutet’s game should give the American a chance to take control of the rallies with his forehand. The results, I’d say, is a toss-up.

Winner: Zheng