Iga Swiatek vs. Elena Rybakina: Betting Preview and Pick

On Sunday, August 17, Iga Swiatek and Elena Rybakina will compete for a spot in the Cincinnati final. This head-to-head series has tilted the Pole’s way in recent years, with Swiatek winning three in a row. That streak includes a 1-6, 6-3, 7-5 win in the Round of 16 at Roland Garros.

But faster hard courts suit Rybakina’s game a little better, and it’s not like the 26-year-old hasn’t beaten Swiatek before. Rybakina has beaten Swiatek four times, and two of those victories came on the Pole's favorite surface, clay. With that in mind, Rybakina should have the confidence she needs to go out there and win this one. That, combined with some awesome recent form, makes her worthy of a plus-money play.

It’s probably not the best idea to question Swiatek’s hard-court prowess right now. She just won Wimbledon after years of people doubting her ability to win on grass. Yet for all of the changes Swiatek has made to improve her serve and get better at playing with her front foot forward, it is possible to rush her process. Also, while her serve might be improved, but it’ll still be the much weaker of the two.

I can imagine a scenario where Rybakina runs through her service games, while Swiatek is still going to have to fight to win some of hers. And if she gives Rybakina enough chances, I’d be surprised if the world No. 11 doesn’t take advantage. She has been extremely opportunistic in Cincinnati this week, espeically against Aryna Sabalenka, where she converted three of her five break point chances in a lopsided win.

Rybakina just needs to continue to keep herself together from the baseline. She has been playing some great tennis from the back of the court this week, striking the ball brilliantly and regularly hitting her targets—helped by the speed of the courts. Rybakina’s forehand can occasionally be a little leaky, and she’s going to need to hold her own in forehand-to-forehand exchanges in this one.

This match feels like a bit of a coin-flip battle, but the coin might be weighted to the Rybakina side in conditions that favor big servers and powerful baseliners. That’s why Rybakina seems like a good play at anything +125 or better.

Pick: Rybakina ML (+137)