Draper Ruud Madrid Split

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Ruud is seeking his first ATP Masters 1000 title; Draper is aiming to win his second 1000-level crown this season (Indian Wells).

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Read More: Ruud gets back on the hamster wheel after seeking help for mental health

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"I always want more": Jack Draper cracks Top 5 for the first time 

Mutua Madrid Open Men's Final Preview

Who’s turf is this? That might be the first question we want to ask before this final, considering that there’s no head-to-head history between the 23-year-old Brit and the 26-year-old Norwegian.

Because the surface is clay, you’d be tempted to say the conditions favor Ruud, a two-time Roland Garros runner-up. Ruud has won 11 of his 12 titles on the surface, while this is Draper’s first final on it.

But there are different varieties of dirt, and different locations where it exists. Madrid’s mountainous altitude helps make its clay among the fastest anywhere. Its closest sibling might be the hard courts in the Indian Wells desert, a place where Draper just won his biggest title to date.

This isn’t to say that he has always found the Caja Magica so magical; Draper was 0-2 there before this year. But the ball has been bouncing up and into his high strike zone over the last two weeks, and he has been punishing it, especially with his lefty forehand. He hasn’t dropped a set so far, and has had two especially impressive wins: An eyebrow-raising 6-2, 6-2 rout of Tommy Paul, and a tougher grind against a true clay-courter in Lorenzo Musetti. Draper came into this clay season with momentum from Indian Wells, and a vow to do better on dirt, and now he has.

Draper credits an unimpeachable left-handed role model—Rafael Nadal—for his improvement on the surface.

“I think definitely things I can learn from the way he looked for his forehand, the way he dictates, and the way he bullies opponents, especially on the clay,” Draper says of Nadal. “I think that’s definitely something I’m learning how to do, look for my forehand more, and try and dictate what I’m trying to do, for sure.”

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Ruud is also a (literal) student of the Spaniard, and his road to his first final here has been a worthy one as well. He has wins over Taylor Fritz, Daniil Medvedev, and Francisco Cerundolo this week, all in tight two-setters. Ruud has had a so-so 2025 up until now, and his perennial Top 10 ranking had shriveled to No. 15. He was due for a performance that would put him back in the Paris conversation, and now he has it. He also has a chance to rectify a surprising stat: His lack of a Masters 1000 title.

Ruud cites a new focus on his mental health for his uptick.

“It’s a tough life in many ways, and a lot of travel days, and it just got to a point where it got felt like it was getting too much,” he said earlier in the week. “But I really seeked help, and it’s been working, so I’m happy to feel more joy and feel like I’m in a better place…I’m happy that I was honest with myself and felt like I needed some help, and it’s been paying off quite quickly.”

Both of these guys have won half of their finals: Ruud is 12 of 24; Draper is three of six. Draper is currently ranked nine spots higher at No. 6, he already has a Masters win this year, in Indian Wells, and Ruud nursed a rib injury through his semifinal with Cerundolo.

If he’s healthy, though, this will be competitive. Both guys have excellent, bailout serves. They both have good feel. They’re both content to rally with their topspin two-handed backhands. Will the match be won from the forehand side? Ruud’s heavy topspin forehand is perfect for most clay courts, but Draper’s flatter lefty version may be better for this clay. Winner: Draper

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Betting Odds

Draper is a -210 moneyline favorite; Ruud is a +175 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Saturday, May 3)

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