Hailey Baptiste, facing six match points, made Aryna Sabalenka play each one in stirring Madrid comeback

Jack Draper’s breakthrough 2025 season continues and the Brit is proving himself a man of all surfaces at the Mutua Madrid Open. Draper took a 9-11 clay-court record into the season but the BNP Paribas Open champion is already into his first clay-court Masters 1000 semifinal in just his second clay outing of the season.

Draper is yet to drop a set in Madrid, making quick work of No. 11 seed Tommy Paul and Italian Matteo Arnaldi to find himself an oddsmaker’s favorite against No. 10 seed Lorenzo Musetti. The Olympic bronze medalist has more clay-court experience and enjoyed his own bright start to the European swing with a runner-up finish in Monte Carlo.

Musetti has also rolled through the draw, scoring back-to-back wins over former world No. 3 Stefanos Tsitsipas and No. 6 seed Alex de Mianur to reach a second straight Masters 1000 semifinal. Just seven months younger than Jannik Sinner, is the Italian ready to enter the top tier of the men’s game on a more consistent basis? How he fares against Draper could set the tone and see him become a favorite at Roland Garros. Winner: Musetti—David Kane

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Betting Odds

Draper is a -190 moneyline favorite; Musetti is a +145 underdog.

(Odds from BetMGM as of 4:50 p.m. ET on Thurday, May 1)

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