Casper Ruud has his detractors, but nobody doubts his clay-court prowess. Ruud is a different animal on the dirt, where he consistently makes deep runs and has twice been a Roland Garros runner-up. However, altitude clay isn’t quite as slow and gritty as typical clay-court events, which is part of the reason Ruud hasn’t had a ton of success at the Mutua Madrid Open. This tournament does require some serious baseline ability, but powerful serving and big baseline games are rewarded. That said, I like Taylor Fritz at plus-money odds in this Round of 16 showdown.
We have seen that Fritz can beat Ruud in server-friendly conditions, as he beat him in four sets at last year’s US Open. Of course, that’s a true hard-court event. There aren’t too many similarities between that and what we’ll see in Madrid. But Madrid is also nothing like what we saw when these two clashed at the French Open a couple of months earlier. And even that was a match that Ruud had to battle for, in a 7-6 (6), 3-6, 6-4, 6-2 victory. Those conditions were much more favorable for Ruud.
In Madrid, Fritz should be the player that holds a little easier. Over the last 52 weeks, his hold percentage is up at 90.1%, which is second to only Jannik Sinner. Ruud’s is down at 82.2%. If you break that down by only clay-court events, Fritz’s hold percentage is still an impressive 86.4%. Ruud’s is 80.6%.