Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner; Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev: Australian Open men's semifinal previews and picks

The men’s No. 1, 3, 4 and 6 seeds have survived and advanced into the Australian Open’s final Friday. Novak Djokovic (1) is the favorite, but the three others have all beaten him in top-tier matches. Jannik Sinner (4) did it in Davis Cup last year; Daniil Medvedev (3) did it when Djokovic went for the Grand Slam at the 2021 US Open; Alexander Zverev (6) did it at the 2021 Tokyo Olympics. On paper at least, there’s suspense about who will end up with the trophy. Let’s see how much of it there is in reality.

The most-anticipated men’s match of 2024 will happen three weeks into the season

Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner

When Sinner was asked about facing Djokovic in an Australian Open semifinal, he answered in suitably dramatic fashion.

“It’s gonna be tough,” Sinner said. “This, I know.

“I will control the controllable. More than this, I cannot do.”

One important fact that Sinner also knows is that he can beat Djokovic. Unlike most players who face the 10-time AO champion, the Italian has done it twice within the last two months. He beat him, for the first time in his career, at the ATP Finals in Turin, and did it again in Davis Cup a couple of weeks later.

Sinner did it by matching Djokovic serve for serve, forehand for forehand, and maybe most crucially, backhand for backhand. He showed the same ability to go from defense to attack in one swing with his two-hander. Both times, Djokovic asked every question of the young Italian he could come up with, and Sinner had the answer. Just when it seemed that Djokovic would use his experience to pull away at the end, it was Sinner who raised his game instead.

Because of that, Djokovic-Sinner was the men’s match we wanted to see most in 2024, especially if it happened at a major. So far, Sinner has shown no signs of a letdown at Melbourne Park, where he hasn’t dropped a set. Djokovic, meanwhile, has run his win streak at the site to 33; he hasn’t lost there since 2018. The Serb has struggled a bit physically, first because of his wrist, and then because of the heat in his quarterfinal win over Taylor Fritz. Djokovic will have to play the warmer day match on Friday, but judging by the forecast, he may get a reprieve; the temperature is supposed to be in the mid-70s.

More important than the weather is Djokovic’s history. How many times have we seen him leave his vulnerabilities and negative emotions behind once he gets into a match like this, late at a major? To that end, this semifinal puts me in mind of his 2021 AO final against Daniil Medvedev. Two months earlier, Medvedev had beaten Djokovic on his way to the title at the ATP Finals, and many of us believed he could do it again and usher in a changing of the men’s guard. Then Djokovic clocked him in straight sets, and ended all talk of a new era.

I think Sinner, who can dictate play in a way that Medvedev can’t, has a better chance of avoiding that fate than the Russian did then. But I still have to pick Djokovic. Winner: Djokovic

They’ve played just about everywhere in the last year; now they’ll do it at a Slam

Daniil Medvedev vs. Alexander Zverev

The night match will be a battle of the marathon men. Medvedev and Zverev have each won two five-set matches this fortnight. Both of the German’s went to 7-6 in the deciding set, while Medvedev was pushed to his physical limit by Hubert Hurkacz in the quarterfinals.

Zverev not only survived them, he went on to put on one of the best performances of his career in beating Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals. After that match, he said he felt fine. Medvedev, meanwhile, hasn’t tried to hide his exhaustion.

“After every match, I’m in the locker room, I’m destroyed,” he said.

But Medvedev also said his team does a “good job” of putting his body back together, and that two days off, and a night match on Friday, should be enough recovery time. At this point, Zverev won’t be any fresher than he is.

Medvedev comes in as the favorite. He’s the higher seed, he’s been to an Australian Open final twice before, he has an 11-7 record against Zverev, and he beat him six times in seven meetings in 2023—they certainly know each other’s games well. At the same time, those recent matches were close. One of Medvedev’s wins was 7-5 in the third set, another was 7-6 in the third; Zverev’s only victory, in Cincinnati, was 6-4 in the third.

Zverev admitted that Medvedev “has been kicking my ass” lately. But he also says he’s in a different place than he was in 2023. Last year, he was still recovering from a long injury layoff.

“A lot of the times it came down to him being extremely confident last year, him playing some of the best tennis of his life,” Zverev said of Medvedev, “and me coming back from injury and not having the confidence in deciding moments and not being able to finish matches.”

Medvedev is favored, but the match will probably reside on Zverev’s racquet. Against Alcaraz, he made 85 percent of his first serves and hit through the court with his ground strokes, rather than sitting back and rallying, the way he normally does. Can he keep that up? Will it work against a very different type of opponent? Medvedev is a master of defense, and won’t make as many errors as Alcaraz did.

I do think Zverev can keep it up. But while he will likely have raise to his level, Medvedev can stay closer to his comfort zone and still win. Winner: Medvedev