Which 19-year-old takes maiden meeting: Joao Fonseca or Rafael Jodar? | Madrid Preview & Picks

Joao Fonseca vs. Rafael Jodar

“I knew I had to enjoy myself,” Jodar said after his stunningly one-sided win over fifth seed Alex De Minaur on Friday. “If I had a shot, I had to go for it.”

It’s good to be young, isn't it? It’s also good to be Jodar. The 19-year-old has made a meteoric rise to star status over the past two months. With Spain’s No. 1 attraction, Carlos Alcaraz, on the shelf, the teenager has become the toast of his hometown. He has played two prime-time night-session matches, and won them both. As he said in the quote above, he’s just enjoying the moment and taking a rip whenever he gets a chance. That’s usually a recipe for success, no matter how old you are.

Now Jodar will face a player who is just as young as he is, and who was in a similar position 12 months ago. For the first half of 2025, Fonseca was the fresh face—and forehand—of the men’s game. Since then, though, the Brazilian has learned that youthful optimism will only take you so far. By the end of last year, he was worn down by the grind and struggling for any win he could get. After a welcome off-season, though, Fonseca has recaptured some of his rookie-season spirit and begun climbing the rankings again.

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Jodar seems to have a healthy respect for Fonseca, and a healthy understanding that everything won’t go his way every day.

“Joao is a tough opponent, and I have to prepare well for this match,” Jodar said after beating De Minaur. “I have to play my own game and be ready in case things don’t go as well as today. I have to try to stay strong in those moments.”

This should be the first of many meetings between these two, and a glimpse into the ATP’s future. For now, though, it will also be a pitched baseline battle. Fonseca wields one of the sport’s biggest forehands, while Jodar balances a heavy topspin forehand of his own, with a rifle-shot two-handed backhand. The slightly taller Jodar may have a slight edge on the serve as well.

Fonseca is the veteran, relatively speaking, of the two, but Jodar will be in his element again, on his home court, with a night crowd pushing him on. Winner: Jodar

Elena Rybakina vs. Zheng Qinwen

Neither of these women would seem at first to have games made for clay. They like to end points quickly, and they have the weapons to do it. Consistency, whether it’s from point to point or set to set, is not always their strong suit. Each showed that again in their Madrid openers, when they dropped their first sets to much lower-ranked opponents before coming back to win.

This is not the typical way of the dirt-baller, yet Rybakina and Zheng have both had strong results on clay. For Zheng, that includes an Olympic gold medal at Roland Garros in 2024, and a quarterfinal run at the same location last year. For Rybakina, it includes five clay-court titles, including one in Rome in 2023, and one in Stuttgart last week. She already has a Slam title this year, and is looking like a serious contender for another in Paris for the first time.

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app! (Approx. start time 2:00PM ET)

As you might expect, Zheng and Rybakina have had their back-and-forth battles. Zheng won 6-1 in the third when they met at the WTA Finals two years ago; Rybakina won 7-5 in the third when they faced off again in Doha earlier this year. They’ve never met on clay.

The quick version of the surface in Madrid should suit both of them. It should also make for a match that might not resemble a classic dirt-ball grind. Their serves should be effective, their ground strokes will be hard to defend, and their rallies may not last all that long.

Zheng, with her heavy topspin, may be the natural player on this surface. But Rybakina has been the better player this year. Winner: Rybakina

Jannik Sinner vs. Elmer Moller

Moller has had to work a good deal harder than Sinner to set up this third-round clash. The Dane has won four matches in Madrid, including three in qualifying, while the Italian has won just one. That’s what happens when one player is ranked first on tour, and the other 121st.

Those numbers sound like a recipe for a blowout, and Sinner, despite a shaky start in his opener, is certainly the favorite. But Moller is worth a watch on his own.

👉 Stream live on the Tennis Channel app! (Approx. start time 10:00AM ET)

A skinny and unprepossessing 6’0, you may wonder when you first see him how he can possibly stand up to his bigger and stronger fellow pros. But the 22-year-old makes up for his lack of physicality with superb timing, especially on his two-handed backhand. He’s so good on that side that he often favors his backhand over his forehand when he has a chance to hit an offensive shot.

Sinner, with the first-round nerves shaken out, should be in control of this match. But Moller will likely show the crowd a different way of playing tennis, and come up with a few shots worthy of a highlight reel, before making his exit. Winner: Sinner

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