Rome Betting Preview: Carlos Alcaraz vs. Jannik Sinner

For the first time ever, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz will clash in the final of a 1000-level event. On Sunday, the two superstars—responsible for the last five Grand Slam titles—will battle for the Internazionali BNL d’Italia trophy. Alcaraz has been regarded as the best clay-court player in the world, and his title run in Monte-Carlo a couple of weeks ago made it hard to argue that assertion.

Alcaraz is also the defending champion at Roland Garros, and he beat Sinner on his way to winning that title in Paris last year. But this is Rome. And Sinner, who was born in Northern Italy, is adored by these fans. That should give him some much-needed adrenaline as he looks to snap a three-match losing streak against Alcaraz. Also, while the Spaniard might possess superior clay-court ability right now, Sinner’s best level is capable of beating anybody—on any surface.

I actually have a future on Alcaraz to win this tournament, as that was a +275 pre-tournament play that I gave out on Tennis Bets Live, a weekly Tennis Channel betting show that lives on YouTube and social media. However, given everything we’ve seen over the last couple of months, this is a match that I’m expecting Sinner to win.

When trying to figure out how this tournament would play out, I saw the draw and assumed Sinner wouldn’t make the final. That has nothing to do with the Italian’s on-court ability. I view Sinner as the best player in the world, and I believe there’s a pretty steep gap between him and Alcaraz. But I did think that a few months off would be rough on Sinner when it comes to conditioning. He clearly packed on some muscle in his time off, and he surely worked tirelessly on his stamina.

That said, there’s no substitute for playing real matches, and I figured he’d be done in by either stamina or rust. But Sinner just looks like a player that is fresh as can be, and ready to compete for a calendar Slam. His 6-0, 6-1 thrashing of Casper Ruud in the quarterfinals was one of the best performances I’ve seen in years. And though there were some down moments against Tommy Paul in the semis, he went right back to playing like the world’s best player in the final two sets.

With Sinner looking like he hasn’t skipped a beat, I just find myself thinking that this is going to be a brutal matchup for Alcaraz. I know the Spaniard has won three in a row against Sinner, and Alcaraz has also had more time to get his feet underneath him this season. But Alcaraz is worse in 2025 than he was in 2024. His best level is still breathtaking, but we've seen a watered-down version, capable of dazzling but often mixing in head-scratching stretches of play this year.

The most concerning thing with Alcaraz is how hard he has to work on his own serve. His 83.6% hold percentage just isn’t good enough for a player with his power—and his ability to do special things with a racquet. If Alcaraz doesn’t serve well against Sinner, he’s going to make life on the Italian far too easy.

Alcaraz’s baseline game is also hard to trust in this matchup. The Spaniard should be able to frustrate Sinner with his ability to cover the court, as the Italian has noted that he’s having trouble hitting through the slower courts in Rome. But throughout his career, Alcaraz has been hesitant to rely on his elite athleticism to outlast opponents and grind out wins. He’d rather go shot for shot and try to show his opponent that he has the talent to do anything they can.

If Alcaraz does look to out-hit Sinner, that’s going to work out perfectly for the Italian. Sinner’s power from the baseline is effortless, as he blasts shots deep in the court and doesn’t aim for small targets. His normal rally-balls are powerful and heavy enough to fluster opponents. If Alcaraz tries to power up and throw that back at Sinner, he’s going to risk racking up unforced errors.

Overall, the version of Alcaraz that we have seen in the last two years is a little too erratic to back against Sinner, who is spectacular but plays a low-risk style. And while the head-to-head numbers might not support that, I’ll take my chances in betting that record starts to even out—even on the Spaniard’s preferred surface. I also question how Alcaraz will deal with the crowd going absolutely insane for Sinner. He was able to overcome it against Lorenzo Musetti, but this is going to be an entirely different atmosphere.

Pick: Sinner ML (-133)