Rome Previews: Daniil Medvedev tries to derail Jannik Sinner, Casper Ruud faces Luciano Darderi

Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev

By the end of his quarterfinal win over Martin Landaluce on Thursday evening, Medvedev had elevated his game to something close to its peak. He had his opponent smiling in disbelief at his returns that landed on the baseline, his forehands that skidded through the corners, his overheads that dove in at the last second, and his swing volleys into the open court. The normally defensive-minded Russian was making red-lining look easy.

What does he get for a reward? A Friday semifinal against the top-seeded Sinner, who finished his own match, in straight sets, many hours earlier.

Medvedev, as he surely doesn’t need to be reminded, hasn’t had any answers for the Italian recently. He’s 1-9 in their last 10 matches, and has gone set-less against him for nearly two years. Not only will he be coming in on less rest than Sinner for this semifinal, he’ll be facing him in front of his home fans, who would love to see him win his national title for the first time.

What can Medvedev do to fend off all of these factors that are lined up against him? He needs to keep doing what he was doing Thursday night. The last time he faced Sinner, in the Indian Wells final in March, Medvedev was also in all-out attack mode, and he basically fought the world No. 1 to a draw from the baseline. Both sets went to tiebreakers, and Medvedev had chances to win each of them. In the second, Sinner appeared to be on the verge of cramping in the heat, but rescued himself with a series of pinpoint, pressure-packed winners. If it had gone to a third, Medvedev might have won.

On Thursday, in his quarterfinal, Sinner also had a physical issue. Whether it was a cramp, or a leg injury, or tiredness, he suddenly struggled to get the ball over the net late in the second set against Andrey Rublev. Once again, he saved himself with the quality of his shots and served out the match in two.

Medvedev should feel confident that he can (a) go toe-to-toe with Sinner, and (b) possibly wear him down physically. But even combined, I don’t think those two things give him a 50 percent chance of winning. Sinner has been too good—this year, in Masters 1000s, and against this opponent—to be anything other than a solid favorite. Winner: Sinner

👉 Start time: 1:00 p.m. ET | 10:00 a.m. PT

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Casper Ruud vs. Luciano Darderi

Earlier this week, I wrote that Darderi had an exceptionally low profile for a Top 20 player. He has five career titles, he’s been ranked as high as No. 18, and he’s had a good year, but you wouldn’t know it by the number of times he’s shown up on big stages, or on the average fan’s TV set.

Three rounds later, those fans have seen a lot more of the Italian, who was born in Argentina to a teaching pro father. Darderi came back from a set down to beat Tommy Paul; saved match points against Alexander Zverev; and survived a mid-match charge by Rafael Jodar. In all three, he rode a tsunami of Roman support to a blow-out third-set win.

Now he’ll face another tough task: A two-time Roland Garros runner-up who is rounding into form for the French once again. Ruud has beaten three higher seeds—Jiri Lehecka, Lorenzo Musetti, and Karen Khachanov—with hardly a hiccup. While he dropped a set to Khachanov on Wednesday, he quickly rectified matters and won the third 6-2.

Ruud and Darderi have never played. They’re both clay-courters—Darderi has won all five of his titles on dirt, while 12 of Ruud’s 14 have come on the surface. Ruud is slightly lower-ranked at the moment—25 to 20—but he’s the more accomplished and experienced player. Along with his two finals in Paris, this will be his fourth semifinal in Rome. Most important, his serve and forehand may be the two most lethal shots on the court.

Darderi will need his people to give him another boost. I thought that Jodar would have too much game for him in the end, but the Campo Centrale crowd made a difference. Many Italian players never master the art of harnessing the home crowd. Before 2026, that included Darderi. Now that he has, we’ll see how far they can go together. Winner: Ruud

👉 Start time: 9:30 a.m. ET | 6:30 a.m. PT

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