Will Victoria Azarenka, the only major finalist left in the top half, return to the Australian Open quarterfinals?

There’s no one in the Top 10 left in the upper half of the women’s draw, which means every match will feel a little bit tenser, because everyone has a chance to make the final. Intensity certainly won’t be lacking when these two highly-focused and aggressive competitors take the court. The 34-year-old, 22nd-ranked Azarenka, a two-time champion here, must feel like this is golden opportunity for a late-career return to the mountaintop. The 93rd-ranked Yastremska, who qualified for the main draw and won six matches to get here, might just be happy to have made it this far at a major for the first time since 2019. Azarenka leads their head-to-head 2-1, and she won their most recent meeting last fall. But the match may lie on Yastremska’s racquet. When she’s on, she’s the more lethal ball-striker of the two. But she’s not always on. Winner: Azarenka

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Azarenka is the only player remaining in the top half of the women's draw who's reached a major final.

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Experience (Elina Svitolina) vies with breakthrough momentum (Linda Noskova)

second on Margaret Court Arena (day)

Will experience or the momentum of a breakthrough rule the day? Svitolina, 29, may never have a better chance to make her first Slam final. She has gradually been getting closer in recent years, reaching the semifinals at the US Open in 2019, and Wimbledon in 2019 and 2023. In this match she’ll be trying to get to her third AO quarterfinal. It’s been smooth sailing for her so far in Melbourne; she hasn’t lost more than three games in any set. But Noskova should be a step up in quality. The Czech is only 19, and only ranked 50th, but she’s coming off the win of her life over Iga Swiatek. Judging by the power, feel, and court sense she showed in that match, Noskova is heading much higher in the future. If she can maintain even a semblance of that level, she could send Svitolina packing. But she could also be ripe for a drop-off. Winner: Svitolina

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Miomir Kecmanovic: Their last meeting was a barn-burner

first on Rod Laver Arena (night)

Two years ago in Miami, these two put on a shot-making show over three close sets. Kecmanovic appeared to have the edge much of the time, but Alcaraz stole the win away, 7-5 in a third-set tiebreak. Back then, I thought the young Serb would soon join the Top 20, at the very least. And he did get to No. 27, before his consistency and seemingly his confidence began to slide. He’s at No. 60 to start 2024, but his five-set third-round win over Tommy Paul, in which he saved a match point, might indicate that his slide is finally over. As he showed in their first meeting, a clicking Kecmanovic has the firepower to stay with Alcaraz, and push him into an entertaining shootout. Winner: Alcaraz

Alcaraz and Kecmanovic played a tense three-setter in Miami two years ago.

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Arthur Cazaux blitzed No.8 Rune; can he do the same to No.9 Hurkacz?

third on John Cain Arena

Ranked just 122nd and normally a denizen of the ATP Challenger circuit, the 21-year-old Cazaux has taken his reciprocal wild card into the main draw and run with it. He played loose-limbed, lights-out power-baseline tennis to beat No. 8 Holger Rune in four sets in the second round, and was even more commanding in a straight-set demolition of Tallon Griekspoor in the third round. Now he get his first crack at the ninth-ranked Hurkacz for a shot at the quarterfinals. I’ll go with experience here, and hope to see more of Cazaux in the near future. Winner: Hurkacz

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