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What to watch on the first day of fourth-round play, including Tsitsipas vs. Fritz, Sabalenka vs. Anisimova, Sinner vs. Khachanov and Rublev vs. de Minaur.

BySteve Tignor

Published Jan 20, 2024

PRESS CONFERENCE: Coco Gauff opens by paying tribute to the late Mike Dickson | Australian Open

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Coco looks to make her first quarterfinal Down Under

Coco Gauff vs. Magdalena Frech

Gauff has taken up early-day residency at Melbourne Park this year; that’s the best time for her fans watching on TV back in the States to catch her. Count me among those who worried that she might struggle to match her borderline-unbeatable level from the second half of 2023. So far, though, we haven’t seen any signs of a letdown. She’s 8-0 in 2024, and hasn’t dropped a set at the AO.

She has played well at Melbourne Park in the past, but never made it past the fourth round. She’ll try to take that step in her first meeting with the 69th-ranked Frech, who has beaten Daria Saville, Caroline Garcia and Anastasia Zakharova. There wouldn’t seem to be anything in the steady Pole’s game to stop her. Winner: Gauff

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The start of Coco Gauff's 2024 is resembling the end of her 2023—a very good thing for her legion of fans.

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This American tries, again, to take a seat at the big-boy table

Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Taylor Fritz

The Greek and the American are exiled, relatively speaking, to John Cain Arena in the middle of the day. I’m guessing Tsitsipas’ small army of Australian supporters will find him wherever he goes, though. From Fritz’s point of view, this is another opportunity to prove that he can move from the ATP’s second tier into its top tier. He’s a year older than Tsitsipas (26 to 25), and was his equal as a junior, but he has been ranked below the Greek for almost all of their pro careers. Fritz had a similar opportunity two years ago when he faced Tsitsipas in the same round of this tournament—he went up two sets to one, but let Tsitsipas escape in five. In 2023, though, Fritz finally recorded a win over him, on clay of all surfaces, in Monte Carlo.

Tsitsipas’ one-hand backhand gives him a few more options than Fritz—he can slice, drop, and come to net more easily—but it’s also a weakness on returns. I’d say Fritz is due for a top-tier win at a major, but I said the same thing the last time they faced off here. Winner: Tsitsipas

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Can Sabalenka find a way past her Kryptonite?

Aryna Sabalenka vs. Amanda Anisimova

Here’s an interesting fact about this day match in Margaret Court: The 442nd-ranked Anisimova leads the second-ranked Sabalenka 4-1 in their head-to-head. There are a couple of caveats to that record, of course. All of those matches occurred before 2023, when Sabalenka was a much more erratic player than she is today. Four of them were played on clay, a surface Anisimova likes. And Sabalenka won their most recent meeting, in Rome in 2022. Still, it took her three sets.

From their first meeting, which happened at the AO in 2019, this has been a frustrating matchup for Sabalenka. She pulverizes the ball with her heavy spin, and Anisimova uses that pace to send it back harder, flatter, and into a corner of the court. That could happen again, but if it does, this version of Sabalenka should know how to handle it better than she did in the past. Winner: Sabalenka

Anisimova reached the Roland Garros semis at 17, but would take time away from the sport due to burnout.

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No trigger will go unpulled in this heavy-artillery affair

Jannik Sinner vs. Karen Khachanov

If Sinner has been itching for a test, he’ll get his wish on Sunday. The Italian is one of the favorites to win the title, and he has played like it in three drop-the-hammer, straight-set wins. But Khachanov is another level of power and quiet confidence. The 14th seed made the AO semifinals last year, and while he hasn’t blown any of his opponents away so far this time, he has been impenetrable in the big moments.

Sinner leads their head-to-head 2-1, but all three of those matches were extremely close and could have gone either way. Khachanov hits the ball with as much weight as Sinner, but he takes a little longer to get his forehand swing through. That could be the difference in a heavy-artillery affair that may come down to just a few points late in sets. Winner: Sinner

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Two hair-on-fire competitors go toe-to-toe

Andrey Rublev vs. Alex de Minaur

The night-session showcase is the right one. Rublev vs. de Minaur is a matchup that many of us looked forward to when the draw came out, and it has only become more intriguing in the week since. Rublev is the fifth seed, and he has made himself into one of the toughest early outs at majors. The Russian reached the quarterfinals at three of the four Slams last year, and after a first-round struggle, he has won six straight sets. But de Minaur, ranked five spots lower, may be in even better form at the moment. He came to Melbourne having beaten Fritz, Alexander Zverev and Novak Djokovic in United Cup, and he has won three matches in confident, decisive fashion this week.

He has a man-on-a-mission quality at his home Slam right now. Even more promising, perhaps: de Minaur is 3-2 against Rublev. Whoever wins, these two hair-on-fire competitors will leave everything, and a little more, out there. Winner: de Minaur

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